To trade or not to trade: Thad is the question

With 30 games in the rearview and just over 30 days until the trade deadline, it’s a good time to reflect on this Bulls season and think about how Artūras Karnišovas should approach his first trade season as the lead decision maker for a team.

As of this writing, the Bulls’ 14-16 record is good enough for 9th in the bunched up Eastern Conference; they trail the 6th seeded Boston Celtics by a game in the loss column, and have a one game advantage on the 11th place Hawks. They are clearly a cut above the Pistons, Cavaliers, Wizards, and injury plagued Magic. They need to outplay just one of the Hawks, Heat, Knicks, or Hornets to finish within the top ten of the conference and secure a spot in the play-in tournament, which seems likely!

Likely that is, unless Karnišovas decides to trade away Thaddeus Young before the March 25 deadline.

Despite not making a start this year and averaging just 25 minutes per game, Young has been the second most important player on the Bulls after Zach LaVine. Young is second on the team in Win Shares and Box Score plus/minus (if you ignore Cristiano Felicio’s 38 minutes played). The Bulls have a positive net rating of +6.7 points/100 possessions when Thad is on the court, and a -6.8 net rating when he’s on the bench. Of the Bulls five man lineups that have logged at least ten minutes on the court together, Thad is a member of nine of the top ten in net rating.

It seemed like Young’s career was headed into its twilight phase a year ago, miscast as a shooter in Jim Boylen’s unimaginative offense. But with new responsibilities allotted to him by Billy Donovan, Young has proven he has plenty to contribute to winning basketball. Stephen Noh wrote before the season began about how Donovan’s system in OKC allowed Steven Adams and Nerlens Noel to operate from the high post and log assist numbers they hadn’t sniffed under other coaches. While the article’s intent was to hype up potential development in Wendell Carter’s game, the way it’s really manifested itself thus far has been through Young’s playmaking.

Young is averaging 4.3 assists per game, after never averaging more the 2.5 in his previous 13 NBA seasons. He is second on the Bulls in assist percentage at 25.4%, which is more than double what he’s ever finished with for a season. “THADGIC JOHNSON” is the fun thing to tweet this year after a sweet pass for a bucket, but the way Young has taken advantage of disadvantaged defenses should have people calling him Thraymond Green. When teams have tried to trap LaVine and force the ball out of his hands, Young has made them pay by catching near the foul line and picking out cutters and shooters as the Bulls operate with a 4-on-3 advantage.

If the Bulls were to trade Thadeus, not only would they be losing a fulcrum of their offense and one of their better defenders, they would also be forcing inferior players into roles they’ve not shown to be capable of handling. Daniel Gafford didn’t show much promise during his run as starting center while Carter was injured. Billy Donovan exhumed Luke Kornett for a few nights before being swiftly returned to the depths of the bench, where he belongs. Young is the Bulls’ best option at backup center on the roster, and has closed games well at the five even on nights Carter is available, giving the team a small-ball element that’s been sorely lacking in years past. Moving on from Young would shoehorn the Bulls into more traditional lineups who have traditionally put up poor results.

Having Young keeps the Bulls respectable. Solid. Not a joke. Is that really why we invest ourselves in a team? So they can hopefully rise to the ranks of “not that bad, I guess”? Yes, trading Young could cause the bottom to fall out on this season, but would that be the worst thing?

Young certainly has value as a trade target. The 32 year old has just one year left on his contract at $14 million, and could be bought out and waved for just $6 million. A team looking to free up $8 million in cap space could send the Bulls back $14 million worth of bad salary and some draft capitol, enjoy the fruits of his labor for the stretch run and save $8 million on their 2021-22 books.

What would the Brooklyn Nets be willing to part with to add a capable interior presence to their potent offensive group? Could Denver see Young as a serious upgrade over the production they’re getting from JayMychal Green? Does Milwaukee really want to count on Bobby Portis in the postseason?

All of those teams could offer up a mix of second round picks, or possibly a well protected first rounder in the future. Thad isn’t going to fetch a high caliber prospect, but it’s possible a team would be willing to part with somebody young they don’t consider a part of their core. These could be assets used to bulk up the Bulls when they eventually have a chance at contention, a time that will not happen before Young’s value on the court has dramatically diminished. Trading Young before the deadline would also do wonders for the Bulls’ own draft pick this season. Are all of these potential benefits to a trade really worth it to keep the dream of squeaking into the playoffs for the right to be sacrificed in the first round?

A few years ago, I would have emphatically said yes. Winning is a Process, and there are clear steps to follow. But after three years of dreck and drudgery, I’m starting to sing a new tune. I’m actually enjoying Bulls basketball! There is value in not being a dumpster fire, building a competitive culture throughout the organization, and staking out the Bulls as a rising team that appeals to future free agents.

Young’s impact is easily quantifiable on the court, and he seems to be making an equally large one off of it. Is whoever the 48th pick of the 2023 NBA draft going to contribute more than Thad is to the growth of Carter, LaVine and the rest of the young team? I’m skeptical!

The Bulls have a lot of big decisions ahead of them. LaVine’s next contract will be a defining moment for this team, and what the front office thinks of the long term upside of Markkanen, Carter and White are all decisions I’m glad I don’t have to make. But the choice for whether or not to hold onto Thaddeus Young for the remainder of the season looks much simpler.

Bulls Third Quarter Breakdown

The Bulls are currently 30-30, a perfectly average record. Unfortunately, they haven’t played quite as good as that record suggests, as a recent run of wretched play has dragged Chicago’s net rating down to -1.5, good for 18th in the NBA.  They now sit a half game out of eighth place in the Eastern Conference, on the outside looking in for the first time in months. As we sit at the third quarter mark of the season, the DRaT crew decided to once again take stock of the franchise. (You can find the Quarter Season Breakdown here and the Midseason Breakdown here).

Fortunately for the Bulls (depending on your perspective), they should have plenty of juice to make a push as the team gets healthy. Jimmy Butler is set to return this weekend from a scary knee injury and should instantly boost the team on both offense and defense. Nikola Mirotic is still making his way back from a nightmare appendectomy, but all signs point to a return this month.

While the Bulls have been one of the league’s worst teams of late, there’s also been a few bright spots. Derrick Rose continues to look excellent, easily getting into the paint and converting a solid percentage around the rim. He’s also maintained strong efficiency on his newest weapon, the bank jump shot. While Rose’s inability to stay completely healthy can be quite frustrating, he’s on place to play in nearly 70 games this season. That’s awesome.

Jacob Bikshorn is going to tell you about Doug McDermott‘s surge; Jared Wyllys has the impact of Jimmy Butler’s absence; Drew Hackman digs into the return of DRaT favorite Mike Dunleavy; Jason Schwartz analyzes the emergence of E’Twaun Moore. Enjoy!

-Jake Weiner, (D)Roses and Thorns Editor

Hot Doug — Jacob Bikshorn

Since we last checked in, things have not been going well. Injuries, lackadaisical defense and an improved Eastern Conference have the Chicago Bulls on the outside looking in to the playoff picture. But if you carefully sift through the rubble of this season, you will discover one glimmering ray of hope.

The Bulls front office pushed all their chips to the middle of the table on draft night in 2014, and over the last twenty games, it’s starting to look like that bet might pay off. After a disappointing rookie season and a discouraging start to his sophomore campaign, I was ready to throw in the towel on Doug McDermott. But the developments over the last twenty games have me believing that Doug can grow into a potent offensive weapon.

The absence of Jimmy Butler has forced everyone to shoulder a bigger offensive load, and Doug has answered the call. McDermott has scored double figures in each of the last seven games and nine of the last 10. Prior to the All-Star break, McDermott had a 16.1% usage rate. In the eight games since, McDermott has raised his usage to 20.1%.

An increase in usage is often accompanied by a decrease in efficiency, but thankfully that has not been the case with McDermott. For the season, McDermott’s true shooting percentage is 55.1%. In his last 10 games, Doug’s true shooting has jumped to 59.4%, a number that puts him in the upper echelon of NBA wings.

McDermott has actually seen his three point shooting slip just a bit during this prolonged stretch of effectiveness. He’s shooting over 41% for the season, but just 38% in his last ten games. So how has Doug managed to increase in true shooting percentage?

Before the month of February, only 28.5% of McDermott’s field goal attempts were dunks, layups, hook shots or bank shots. In that same time frame, Doug only shot 51% on these type of shots. But, per NBA Savant, 33.8% of Doug’s field goal attempts have fallen into these shot categories and the former Creighton star is scoring on 63% of these attempts.

I would be lying if I said that I watched much of Doug McDermott in college, but there’s no way he gained his reputation as a prolific scorer by standing in the corners for four years. Forcing McDermott to be nothing more than a floor spacer is an improper use of his skill set and severely limits the impact he can have on the game.

Doug already has a well established reputation of being a knock down shooter. Now, he’s using that reputation to open up other parts of his game. McDermott has become a smart and dangerous cutter and has greatly improved his finishing skills in the paint. This play in particular highlights the full Doug package. He notices his defender overplays the three point threat, makes a smart cut, catches the ball on the move and finishes a reverse and-1.

McDermott still has a long way to go in other aspects of the game. He is still a total defensive liability and is on pace to record the lowest block and steal total ever for a rotation player. But offensively, Doug is developing into a dynamic player able to hurt a defense multiple ways.

The Importance of Jimmy Butler — Jared Wyllys

I don’t think many of us had grand visions for the Bulls’ success this year, but missing the playoffs in a league where so many teams get in would be unexpected. Much can change in the next six weeks or so, but even if they ultimately sneak into the playoffs, it’s difficult to envision any kind of real success at that level.

A lot of this is just the natural consequence of a new coach with the same flawed roster of last year, but so much of the team’s philosophy seems to have shifted. Once known for its defense, they are routinely giving up over 100 points, and even allowing teams to shoot franchise records (nearly 70%!) from the field.

They haven’t been helped, though, by the recent absence of Jimmy Butler. In the grind of midseason, to lose Butler is very hard to recover from. They have gone 4-8 without him, but fortunately, Jimmy is expected to return for Saturday’s game.

Seeing them without Butler probably exposes one of the major flaws of this team as currently constructed: They lack depth. Gone, truly, are the days when the Bulls’ “bench mob” could come in and handle a game in lieu of the starters. We see perhaps flashes of what used to be there, but it’s ultimately gone. The Bulls now depend on Jimmy to be Jimmy for the most part. Butler leads the team in scoring and is just behind Derrick Rose in assists per game. He leads the team in steals per game. Even with his extended absence, Butler is tops in total scoring by over 100 points, and in total steals, it’s not even close. He and Pau Gasol lead the team in VORP, and Butler’s PER is second only to Gasol.

Jimmy Butler is just crucial to this team having any kind of success. He’s the team’s clear best player on both ends of the court, and they’ve been a legitimately awful squad in his absence. Let’s hope Jimmy’s return gets the Bulls back on track.

The Return of Dunl3avy — Drew Hackman

#THERETURN. It’s a moment Bulls fans have been waiting for all season long. (Nevermind the fact that #TheReturn has been overshadowed by injuries to Jimmy Butler, Joakim Noah, Nikola Mirotic, sporadic Derrick Rose soreness, and a mediocre team…) IT’S #THERETURN OF MIKE DUNL3AVY! The man, the myth, the legend, the 35 year-old veteran who came to Chicago to win a championship and who found himself out for half of his second season with the Bulls recovering from back surgery. Now, he returns in the middle of a team fighting for the eighth playoff spot. Since Mike’s return, they have gone 3-8, have allowed 100 or more points in all of those contests, and have been sliding out of relevance. Fortunately, for him, and for Bulls fans, the correlation here does not translate to any meaningful relationship due to its coupling with decimating injuries to several of the top Bulls players.

Mike’s minutes have been understandably reduced, averaging just 21.6 MPG compared to an average of 30.3 over the last two seasons. With only 11 games under his belt this season, and in just about 200 minutes, we’re looking at a small sample size. Nonetheless, according to Basketball-Reference.com, Dunleavy is performing better than his career averages in a few important categories. Most notably, Mike is shooting 47.1% from three point range, compared to 37.7% career – lights out – and, he’s attempting a higher rate, at 5.1 per 36 minutes over his 4.5 career. He only gets to the line a couple times per game, but has hit 85%, over his 80% lifetime. In digging into some of the advanced stats, Mike’s PER is slightly up this year from last, along with ORB%, and USG%. His stats in other areas have suffered as a result of the lack of surrounding talent, but the numbers are encouraging for a player whose job is to provide spacing and a three point threat.

The things that Dunleavy brings to this Bulls team – grit, savvy veteran play, off-the-ball movement, and length on defense – are qualities that Bulls fans can enjoy night in and night out. And since his numbers are looking better this year than last in some key areas, the Dunleavy X-Factor will start to peak when Butler returns to the starting lineup on Saturday. It couldn’t come at a better time, as the Bulls make one final push for a good playoff spot and try to show the league that they’ll still be a relevant force come April 16th.

The Emergence of E’Twaun Moore — Jason Schwartz

With the Bulls free-falling out of the Eastern Conference playoffs and countless injuries to the first team, it has been hard to find positives in this mostly miserable season. However, over the past month, journeyman guard E’Twaun Moore has been just that, a ray of light trapped in a dark and gloomy cave.

Moore had himself his best month in his NBA career this past February, when he averaged 13 points per game on 48 percent shooting. Moore’s career average is just five points per game on 42 percent shooting. But he has found some confidence given the increased minutes he’s received. These minutes are due of course to injuries to the likes of Jimmy Butler, Derrick Rose, and Nikola Mirotic over the last month, but the reserve guard has taken his opportunity and ran with it. Moore is much smarter with the ball than Aaron Brooks, and is much more competent on the defensive side of the ball than his diminutive counterpart.

The Purdue alum will never be a star in this league, but the Bulls have needed consistent backcourt depth for quite some time now. With Brooks struggling with his shot and his other usual short-comings, Moore has been able to wrestle away some vital minutes from the veteran. He is an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season, and GarPax would do well to bring him back at a bargain price. Finding a backup point guard that can take care of the ball and score on occasion is very important for a contending team (even if the Bulls aren’t exactly that at this point).

If nothing else, Moore is a good example of how Hoiball is supposed to be run. Moore pushes the pace when he sees the opportunity, and doesn’t pass up open looks, even if early in the shot clock. His ability to understand what Hoiberg wants is his best quality. In a rarity for the Bulls, they actually seem to run some semblance of an offense when he is in the game. As opposed to the chuck-it-up Brooks, or the drive at all cost Rose, Moore focuses on ball movement and finding empty space on the floor to attack.

Whether he sees significant playing time going forward once the Bulls get healthy remains to be seen, but they have to be thankful for the second round pick who kept them in playoff contention when so many others on the squad lacked energy and intensity.

 

Quick Bulls Thought: Time to Panic?

The Bulls are now 2-6 in their last eight games after a deflated, uninspired, pathetic, disgusting (you get the picture) loss to LeBron’s Cavs. They had just gotten some momentum going, winning 13 of 15 games, then followed it up with this stretch of disappointing losses. Joakim Noah is injured, along with Mike Dunleavy and Doug McDermott, Pau Gasol seems to be getting owned on the defensive end; the entire Bulls defense is like swiss cheese, and they’re not pulling in rebounds like they normally do. Is it time to panic? No, at least not yet. But it’s hard to watch – the All-Star break can’t come soon enough.

Here’s what has not happened in this last eight game stretch (and some even before that) and what needs to start happening…

– Energy and intensity. The Bulls are expecting wins to come to them, and they’re not coming. This is a professional league – teams aren’t just going to roll over because you’re the favorite. In fact, some of these teams get more pumped up to play the Bulls because of the reputation and the challenge. Unfortunately, having this much talent comes with a price: You have to be on top of your mental game every single time. The Bulls have this nasty habit of getting down early in the game and having to dig themselves out of a hole. They have to start the games better.

– This carries over to defense and rebounding. The Bulls got out-rebounded 54-40, and this seems to be a recurring theme. They’re also allowing 102.4 points per 100 possessions, 12th in the league (prior to last night). This is uncharacteristic of a Thibs team, who are always in the top four defenses. It’s not the schemes – Thibs is a defensive mastermind. Defense often comes down to effort, communication, and focus. You lose focus, you lose your man. You don’t communicate with your teammate, the guy gets an open look or a cut to the basket. You don’t put in the effort, and baskets come too easily, and to compound it, you’re often out of position for rebounding. The Bulls have been lacking the mental fortitude, presumably and reportedly because offense is coming so easily. They need to step up the intensity on the defensive end. Plain and simple.

– Pau, Taj, and Niko need to play big minutes to make up for Noah’s absence. Even an injured Jo is better than no Jo at all. He brings the fire, and without even a hobbling Noah, the Bulls seem to lack motivation. Time to dig deep for these three; Pau did have a 40-point game against the Bucks, but it was a game the Bulls barely won. Niko has had a couple of big threes in late game situations, but overall he has struggled with his shot. Taj tends to go to work once he gets position in the post, but fails to recognize when help is coming and he gets double teamed. He’s no longer the best kept secret in the NBA – teams are planning for him – he will need to start having better recognition and work inside-out when help comes.

– The offense has been stagnant. The ball isn’t “hopping,” the Bulls are getting sucked into too many isolation plays, and they’re settling for jumpers and contested shots instead of working the ball inside out. The high screen and rolls have been effective with Pau (Rose and Gasol connected five times on this play against the Hawks), but they tend to fall in love with the PNR. The Bulls need to utilize all of their offensive weapons instead of settling for the two-man game. Guys don’t need a ton of shots, but they do need touches. The Bulls were great at this earlier in the season, but they’ve gotten complacent lately. Watch the Spurs (or, dare I say it, the Hawks) play a game and you’ll see what ball movement is supposed to look like.

Here’s the good news:

– Derrick Rose looks great. His shooting has been hit or miss, but he’s had a couple of 30-point games, has been penetrating, finishing and-one’s, and he was close to a triple double against Atlanta. Health is no longer a concern, and that’s incredibly important. His confidence is peaking, and the team is better when Rose is playing well, and he’ll only get better. Side note: I love it when Rose shoots those half-courters at the buzzer. He doesn’t care about stats, he cares about winning. He was quoted recently after the near triple-double game saying he doesn’t care if he scores 0 points and has 20 turnovers as long as the Bulls win. There you go, Derrick.

– Aaron Brooks is still producing, shooting lights out from 3-point distance, with range that knows no bounds.

– Noah and Dunleavy will be coming back soon. Dunleavy’s presence is underrated. He’s a lengthy forward, a savvy veteran, and affects the game in more ways than just 3-point shots. Perhaps most importantly, his shooting opens the floor for the other players to get to work. He takes up space on the defensive end and has a good all-around game. I never thought I would say it, but it’ll be great when he’s back. Same goes for the defending DPOY, Joakim Noah.

– As fans, we haven’t even seen what this team looks like when McDermott plays well. It’ll be exciting to have a new face in there, even if he does make some rookie mistakes when he comes back.

– The Bulls may have four All-Stars – Rose, Gasol, Noah, Butler. And the All-Star break is almost here, which the Bulls need. Pau and Jimmy are the only two likely to get the nod.

– E’Twaun Moore and Tony Snell have both given solid minutes (except for Snell’s pass to David Blatt tonight. Blatt is the Cavs head coach. He was on the sidelines. Out of bounds. Tony, welcome to SportsCenter’s “Not Top 10”). I think I would prefer to see E’Twaun or Snell over Hinrich at this point. Kirk is just getting older and slower and more useless with every game that passes.

Bottom line, the Bulls need to fix this, and quickly, before their confidence gets too low, and losing becomes a habit. They’ve got all the tools they need, they just need to put it back together.

Steve’s FanDuel Winner New Years Day 1/1/15

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UPDATE: If you are concerned with Henderson’s minutes with Michael Kidd-Gilchrist’s return, insert Tayshaun Prince in his slot.  Lineups subject to change.  All Subject to LeBron James’ Availability.  Follow our Twitter accounts at https://twitter.com/Stavster91or https://twitter.com/DRosesAndThorns