Tag Archives: over unders

How Are My Bets Doing?

After last year’s SNAFU, I was determined to get my bets in on time this year. Halfway through the season, let’s check in…

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Not bad. Not bad.

NBA O/U Win Predictions: The Rest of the League

Hey Guys,

I told you I was going to be efficient.  As we cross the halfway back in our tour around the league, our next stop is our nation’s most scenic region: the Northwest Division.

This motley crew of NBA squads features everything from contenders to pretenders. But, might there be some upside for these pretenders?  Let’s find out.

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Portland Trailblazers: Under 38.5 Wins

2012-2013 Record: 33-49

In a feeble division like the Northwest Division, you would the prospects of a trio featuring LaMarcus Aldridge, Damian Lillard and Nic Batum to be rather optimistic. Wrong.  When it comes to Portland, there’s a bit more than what originally meets the eye.    Although bringing in the likes of Mo Williams, Dorell Wright and Thomas Robinson to shore up last season’s putrid bench is definitely a plus, I see one glaring reason why I’m staying away from the Blazers.  By season’s end, I believe LaMarcus Aldridge will no longer by a resident of the 503.  Coupled with an ominous start to rook C.J. McCollum’s pro career, I’m not smelling the Roses up in Portland this season..

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Minnesota Timberwolves: Over 41 Wins

2012-2013 Record: 31-51

Guys, I absolutely hate the Twins and Vikings.  But, for some odd reason, I Kevin Love the Timberwolves this season.  Considering the fact that the Nuggets, Jazz and Thunder are all substantially weaker, I think this one’s a slam dunk.  With Love returning from injury and another year under Ricky Rubio’s belt, I think the Wolves have got a good shot at making the playoffs.  Throw in the acquisitions of swingmen Corey Brewer and Kevin Martin and you can see where I see upside.   If the Wolves tank and I lose this bet, there is a silver lining for Bulls fans.. I see Love bolting to the Windy City.

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Denver Nuggets: Under 46.5 Wins

2012-2013 Record: 57-25

Although I’m the President of the JaVale McGee Fan Club, I’m not buying the rest of the Nuggets for the upcoming season.  The combination of Danilo Gallinari’s injury with the key departures of George Karl, Andre Iguodala and Brewer definitely casts a troubling cloud over the team’s prospects.  While Ty Lawson is totally capable of putting the team on his back on any given night, I don’t think this Denver team has the depth we’re accustomed to watching.  As much as I love Grandpa Andre Miller leading the team to unforeseen victories, god knows how much the former Ute has in the tank.  If Evan Fournier has the type of breakout season that some experts predict, I’m might be eating my words come May.

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Utah Jazz: Over 25 Wins

2012-2013 Record: 43-39

Insert your Big Love and Mormon Jokes.  I’m so funny.  While I’m sure Utah’s management has considered Riggin’ for Wiggins, they can’t possibly believe new Commissioner to-be Adam Silver (David Stern’s front) will allow basketball’s newest jewel to be trapped in Salt Lake City.  Having said this, I say Derrick Favors,  Gordon Hayward, Enes Kanter and eventually Trey Burke show the league what they’ve got.  In a division where there is clearly only one supreme team, it shouldn’t surprise folks that this Jazz team will be able to hang with the Wolves, Nugs, and Blazers

UPDATE: Guys, we’re gonna have to wrap this up before tonight’s tip-off.  I had some computer difficulties, so bear with me.  Here are the rest of our picks.  

Oklahoma City Thunder: Over 53.5 Wins

Southwest Division:

Dallas Mavericks: Under 44 Wins

Memphis Grizzlies: Over 51.5 Wins

New Orleans Pelicans: Under 40.5 Wins

San Antonio Spurs: Under 55.5 Wins

Houston Rockets:  Over 55 Wins

Pacific Division:

Los Angeles Lakers: Under 34.5 Wins

Los Angeles Clippers: Over 56.5 Wins

Phoenix Suns: Over 19.5 Wins

Golden State Warriors: Over 51.5 Wins

Sacramento Kings: Under 32 Wins

NBA Regular Season Over/Under Win Predictions: Central Division

Hey Guys,

We’re gonna really have to chug through this if I want to finish my predictions for the entire league by tip-off next Tuesday.  Having said this, I won’t your financial health in jeopardy.  We’re just going to have to be efficient. Paul Millsap Style..

For most of you, the Central Division is the only one you truly care about.  I have a strong hunch that most of you actually only care about one team from the Central Division, the Chicago Bulls.

Nevertheless, it’s my job to lay out the landscape for hoops in the entire Midwest.  For dramatic effect, I’ll leave Chicago’s team for last.  Hope you enjoy.

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Cleveland Cavaliers: Under 40 Wins

2012-2013 Record: 24-58

Amongst avid NBA fans, there is growing sentiment that the Cavs are ready to reassert themselves as players in the Eastern Conference.  Due to the fact that I’m hot on others in the division, I’m going to sell the .500 mark for Cleveland.  A city no stranger to disappointment, it wouldn’t shock me if the Cavs struggle to gel this year.   They’ve got a lot of young talent, some injury concerns and history of shit luck. While the prospects of a star Kyrie Irving and second-year Dion Waiters are certainly intriguing, I’m banking on the front-court faltering.  Although the Cavs possess some nice pieces in Tristan Thompson and Anthony Bennett down low, the odds of Andrew Bynum contributing on a consistent level are slim to none. If Bynum somehow resurrects his career, they should clear 40 easy.  Call me a doctor, I don’t see both the former or latter happening in 2013-14.

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Detroit Pistons: Over 40 Wins

2012-2013 Record: 29-53

In the Over/Under crystal ball, there is a winner for every loser and vice versa.  If I short a team like Cleveland, I must be bullish on somebody else’s prospects.  In essence, the wins need to be redistributed somewhere.  For the first time in a while, I think they go to Motown.  Albeit newcomer Brandon Jennings is stuck in the dentist’s office and Josh Smith’s feet seem cemented to the perimeter, I say they figure it out in Detroit.  In a conference featuring weak front courts, the combo of Greg Monroe and Andre Drummond certainly form a formidable threat. If Chauncey Billups and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope can hold down the fort until Brando gets back, I think the fans in Auburn Hills/Detroit will be watching a 6th-7th seeded playoff team this season.

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Milwaukee Bucks: Under 28 Wins

2012-2013 Record: 38-44

Guys, the Bucks franchise might be the worst-run in all of sports.  After building a “solid” nucleus of Brandon Jennings, Andrew Bogut, Larry Sanders and Ersan Ilysova just a few short years ago, management has since proceeded to royally screw up the organization.  First, they coupled Monta Ellis and Brandon Jennings in a back court and thought it would succeed.  Oops.  Then, the team went all out for J.J. Redick and gave away Tobias Harris!  Double Oops. Now, they find themselves starting the likes of Brandon Knight and Orange Juice Mayo in their back-court.  Talk about a train wreck.  While Sanders’ trajectory is promising and Knight’s potential still untapped, I just don’t see things going well in Milwaukee anytime soon.

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Indiana Pacers: Under 55.5 Wins

2012-2013 Record: 49-32

I’ve been flip flopping my Bulls/Pacers over/under prediction back and forth for the past hour.  As previously stated above, one’s “success” should translate into the other’s “demise.”  While both teams can have great seasons, I don’t see both of them in the high 50’s.  With news of Danny Granger already complaining about his calf, I decided to short the Pacers.  Although Luis Scola’s arrival to the Hoosier State is definitely a plus, I see the (inevitable) starting back-court of George Hill and Lance Stephenson as the team’s glaring weakness.  Unless Granger can find his way onto the court and perform with some consistency, I see a high 40’s-low 50’s win team.

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Chicago Bulls: Over 56.5 Wins

2012-2013 Record: 45-37

As I write this, I’m already expecting the minority of our readership to call me a “Homer.” Simmer down, and quickly hear me out.  Yes, the Bulls are dealing with their own fair share of injuries.  Suddenly, Derrick Rose seems like the healthiest one of the team with Joakim Noah, Luol Deng, Kirk Hinrich and Jimmy Butler all complaining about nagging injuries.  Talk about ironic.  While the injury concerns are mounting, I honestly think the Bulls are just playing it safe.  Truth of the matter is, this team is the deepest it’s been in years.  With Mike Dunleavy and Jimmy Butler both manning the two, the Bulls possess the best back-court potential to this point in the Derrick Rose era.   Even with Thibs giving the big guns occasional nights off, I’m banking on the Bulls really bringing it to the hardwood night in and night out.

If I were to choose one of these potential wagers to place my lunch money on, I’d probably allocate the majority of my funds on the Pistons reaching 40 wins.  All in all, Detroit has the makings of a playoff team.  Barring significant injury, I think that one’s a lock.

Until next time,

-Stav

NBA Regular Season O/U Win Predictions: Southeast Division

Hey Guys,

I hope you’re having a terrific start to your week.  Between the full slate of NFL action and the pure brilliance displayed throughout the start of the MLB playoffs, I really haven’t had the energy to focus on the NBA.  Luckily for you, I caught my second wind and I’m ready to go.

Today, we’re going to head south down the East Coast and explore the over/under win totals for our nation’s most backwards thinking region: the Southeast Division.

Buckle up, and enjoy the ride.

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Miami Heat: Over 61.5 Wins

2012-2013 Season: 66-16

While many gamblers might be thinking that they are chasing Miami at a price like this, I’m trying to be a bit contrarian. Whereas the health of Dwyane Wade and the emergence of the Nets and Pacers in the Eastern Conference are serious concerns, Miami is better than they were last year.  How could a team that’s won two titles in a row keep getting better? By buying lotto tickets in Greg Oden and Michael Beasley, the Heat might have found long-term solutions for some of the organization’s glaring holes.  Honestly, if one of these players pan out, the rest of the league is in trouble.  Coupled with the fact that Chris Bosh is playing for a new contract, I’m a buyer at this level.   Cue the violin for Bulls fans…

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Atlanta Hawks: Over 39.5 Wins

2012-2013 Season: 44-38

In my estimation, this obscenely-low figure is trying to trap novice basketball fans who wrote off Atlanta when Josh Smith skipped for Motown.  While Smith is a good player, I’d contend that the Hawks actually improved this season.  No longer having to watch J-Smoove chucking clanks from the perimeter will be a welcome sight for Atlanta basketball fans.  Enter Paul Millsap, one of the league’s most underrated big men.  The combination of Millsap and Horford in the front court is the best in the Conference.  Coupled with the continued development of Jeff Teague and the return of Sweet Lou Williams, I think this is easy money..

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Charlotte Bobcats: Under 27.5 Wins

2012-2013 Season: 21-61

As a rational investor, I couldn’t possibly catch a falling knife and buy into what the Bobcats are doing. In Wall Street, a falling knife is a stock chart that keeps on heading further south.  Often times, aggressive/reckless traders will gamble on calling the bottom.  With Michael Jordan still in control, I’d reckon that this puppy still has legs down.  While the Bobcats do feature the likes of Big Al Jefferson and Kemba Walker, they don’t have much of anything after that.  If I’m a Charlotte restaurant owner, know that Big Al is hungry and he’s got a thick wad of cash.  Think Boris Diaw. After a rough, rookie year, it remains to be seen if Michael Kidd-Gilchrist has got the goods.  Throw in the fact that the Bobcats invested in a Hoosier and you see why I think the Bobcats are in for a rough year.

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Orlando Magic: Under 24 Wins

2012-2013 Season: 20-62

Albeit 24 wins is cutting it close, my gut is telling me this team is serious about Riggin’ for Wiggins.   Unlike many of the other “pretenders” in the Eastern Conference, they’ve got a realistic shot of doing it if they serious look at Victor Oladipo at point guard.   Nevertheless, I like what Orlando is doing on a macro-economic level.  Over the past 24 months, they’ve accumulated young talent up and down the roster.  Magic GM Rob Hennigan drafted Mo Harkless, Andrew Nicholson and Oladipo, while looting Nikola Vucevic and Tobias Harris from the Sixers and Bucks respectfully.  Having said this, Disney World will be my first destination to venture to when I head down to Central Florida.  That is, until at least 2015…

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Washington Wizards: Over 38.5 Wins

2012-2013 Season:  29-53

To tell you the truth, I was lukewarm on this lipsticked pig just a couple of days ago.  Then, the O/U total dropped from 41.5 to 38.5 wins.  While the price activity is telling me that something is clearly wrong in our Nation’s Capital (both basketball related and unrelated), I’m beginning to believe I gotta scoop up these cheap “shares.”  While the notion of Kevin Seraphin and a washed up Nene manning the interior makes me nauseous, I can’t pass up the upside of John Wall and Bradley Beal.  The tandem should be able to score a ton of points in transition against a feeble Eastern Conference.  In terms of sleepers, look for Martell Webster to bury Trevor Ariza and Otto Porter on the pine early on.

As a disclaimer for my audience, I just want to reiterate I wouldn’t wager my first-born on any specific pick.  Perhaps the league’s most mediocre division, you never know who will surprise and who will disappoint.  My job is to sort throughout the B.S. and present you the facts.  If I had to pick a lock in the division, I’d go with ATL.  Nevertheless, there are times where the best investments are the ones that are never made.